Attribution Modeling for Startups: Beyond Last Click

You spent $1000 on YouTube ads. You got 0 sales. You spent $100 on Google Search ads for your brand name. You got 10 sales. Conclusion: Turn off YouTube, put everything into Brand Search.

Result: Sales dry up completely.

Why? Because YouTube created the demand, and Google Search just harvested it. "Last Click" attribution gives 100% of the credit to the final touchpoint, ignoring the assist.

Common Models

1. Last Click: The default. Simple, but biased towards bottom-of-funnel (Search, Retargeting).
2. First Click: Great for seeing what builds awareness.
3. Linear: Everyone gets a trophy. Equal credit to all touchpoints.
4. Time Decay: Recent interactions get more credit.
5. Data-Driven (Algorithmic): The gold standard. Uses AI to assign credit based on actual lift.

The "Marketing Mix Modeling" (MMM) Comeback

With tracking pixels dying, MMM is returning. It uses statistical analysis of revenue vs. spend over time to infer causality. "We spent more on TV, and sales went up overall."

Actionable Advice

Don't trust the dashboard of the platform you are advertising on. Facebook will always claim Facebook drove the sale. Google will claim Google did. Use a third-party truth source (like Triple Whale, Northbeam, or GA4) and look at "Assisted Conversions" to see the full picture.